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Are the experts expert?
Experts are everywhere. Governments and corporations use them, the media,
public and private entities. They inhabit universities.
They inhabit disciplines. There are a number of prime experts that are driving government policy, thinking and response. Governmment economists (in Treasury and in Finance and Administration) and theorists engaged in
climate change and carbon trading. So are they really expert?
Philip Tetlock,
a psychologist with a Phd from Yale has spent much of his time at the
Universities of California, Berkely
and
Ohio.
What makes him unique in the world of academic research is that he has produced a seminal and intensive study of the
world of
experts,
of all types, and assessed whether they are any better at their activity than a novice such as me (KEVINRBECK).
Philip has published his research in "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? (Princeton University Press).
His research translates to any society and this case I have compared it to how things work in Australia.
The Australian Financial Review published an excellent synopsis (Friday 25 November, 2005, Review 3) of his research in an article written by Paul Monk, who is co-founder of
Austhink Consulting
and author of "Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China". Tetlock's work can be applied to the
unflinching claims of the Howard government for its Workplace Relations Reforms, justification of war in Iraq, economic policy, investment in R&D and other pet projects and its ideological
pursuit of dross. Similarly it can be used to debunk economic forecasts, political analysis and a host of other "crystal ball" style pronouncements that are used to sell services,
dress up stories and drive home points. The research exposes the human tendency to rely on an expert, particularly one with a job that suits and a title to go without.
The history of their performance and other traits are never considered nor remembered. He says that "experts are attempting to do with confidence what they demonstrably cannot do very well at all.
They make lots of money and kudos from dubious forecasts without ultimate accountability. They are well suited to being politicians particularly Ministers in Australia's governments and
consultants and advisers in Australia's top tier companies and public sector enterprises.
They are partisan, rarely admit error or they will give a dozen explanations as to how they got it wrong.
Governments, shareholders and businesses lose billions year after year but continue to draw on their services.
Monk quotes Tetlock, "we keep running into ideological impasses rooted in each side insisting on being the only judge of its own beliefs and forecasts".
Does that have resonance, or sound familiar, in your workplace, communities, in political rhetoric and justification, on television and everywhere?
Tetlock found that experts on their home turf made neither better-calibrated nor more discriminating forecasts than did dilettante trespassers. Monk says that Telock found that it made virtually no difference
whether participants had doctorates, whether they were economists, political scientists, journalists or historians, whether they had policy experience or
access to classified information, or whether they had logged many or few years of experience in their chosen line of work.
There was no correlation between ideology and accuracy of judgement or precision of forecasting. The experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in
but to rationalise or outright deny their errors. Is that familiar too? Seems our politicians have this gene.
The dominant danger he concluded was hubris closed mindedness, dismissing dissonant possibilities too quickly.
Resistance is fierce particularly from those with grand reputations but humble track records.
Tetlock did find that exacting research using scientific and other proven techniques
based on solid empirical evidence and statistical analysis and checking, using large volumes of data and input over time did impact on the
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